Human populations and climate: Lessons from the past and future scenarios

The world population has undergone some periods of fast acceleration (the Late Palaeolithic and Neolithic revolutions, the demographic explosion started round year 1500); compared to these episodes, periods of decline appear of much smaller magnitude (except locally, of course). A variety of recovery mechanisms have existed to limit the consequences of mortality crises. Climate fluctuations, e.g., did not stop the growth of the world population. The United Nations expect a further growth of the population from 6.5 billions today to nine billions in 2050, and a possible stabilization round 10 billions by the end of the century. These projections do not take into account possible and unforeseeable catastrophes, which might also induce some new international migrations. To cite this article: H. Leridon, C R. Geoscience 340 (2008). (C) 2008 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.