Quantifying Urban Land Sprawl and its Driving Forces in Northeast China from 1990 to 2015

Drastic urbanization has resulted in numerous problems worldwide, and many studies were devoted to individual cities. There is an urgent need to quantify urbanization patterns and illustrate their driving forces in the regional area on a large scale over a longer time period. This study produced a land cover dataset to characterize sequential urban land expansion in Northeast China from 1990 to 2015 using object-based backdating classification and calculating the expansion index. The drivers were investigated using Pearson correlation analysis and the multiple linear stepwise regression model. The results revealed that the total area of urban land increased by 43.15% from 1990 to 2015, mainly in the middle part of the study area, and especially in the coastal area of Liaoning. Liaoning had the fastest growth rate, while Heilongjiang showed a decrease in growth rate rankings. Urban land expanded northward and southward within Harbin City, towards the west and east within Changchun City, and relatively equally in all directions within Shenyang City. Expansion patterns changed from edge expansion (42%) to outlying expansion (47%). Urban land of Liaoning and the Eastern Inner Mongolia Autonomous region expanded with similar patterns as the entire area, but that of Heilongjiang grew in an opposite pattern, and Jilin maintained outlying major expansion. The influence of factors on urban land sprawl varied temporally. Tertiary industry product, gross domestic product, secondary industry product, total population and urban population were driving factors of urban land sprawl in Northeast China from 1990 to 2015. This research provides quantitative methods for better understanding urban land dynamics and devising feasible strategies for sustainable urban development.