Bus load forecasting method considering user interaction response in electricity market environment

To improve the accuracy of bus load forecasting under the environment of electricity market, a bus load forecasting framework considering user interaction response is proposed. Since bus load components are complex and the response of each load to real-time electricity price is different, the identification and proportion calculation model of bus load components is firstly established. Secondly, the interactive response models of each load to real-time electricity price are established from the perspective of overall price elasticity and time-price difference elasticity. Thirdly, four different forecasting strategies are proposed with considering of electricity price elasticity, and the sequence of interaction analysis and load forecasting. Finally, a case study is carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting framework using the actual bus load data of a certain area in Guangdong Province.