A geospatial model to determine patterns of ice cover breakup along the Slave River

Spring floods have become less frequent along the Slave River and Slave River Delta. As a result, prolonged dry periods have occurred leading to an influx of invasive vegetation more tolerant to dry conditions (e.g., willows). Ice cover breakup and ice jamming can be important mechanisms in river flooding. A clear understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of the spring ice cover breakup along the Slave River could identify possible causes of reduced flood magnitude and frequency in the Slave River Delta. Few attempts have been made to examine the patterns of ice cover breakup along this river. A geospatial model has been introduced in this study to pinpoint the most likely areas of breakup initiation and persistent ice and ice cover at the end of the breakup period along the river. Relatively narrow river sections are responsible for initiation of breakup and relatively wide sections of the river have a strong predisposition for persistent ice along the Slave River. Daily time series of MODIS satellite images acquired from different years were used to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of ice breakup along the Slave River. In addition to geomorphological influence, air temperature and flow conditions also have strong impacts on the spatial and temporal patterns of the ice cover breakup.