An assessment of alternative methods of estimating the effect of the ivory trade ban on poaching effort

The ban on international trade in ivory introduced by the international community in 1989 was intended to protect the declining stock of African elephant (Loxononta africana), by providing a barrier between the range state and the principal consuming nations. If there is a residual trade, then the efficiency of the ban is determined by the decline in the price paid to poachers, and the responsiveness of poaching effort to changing prices. This paper concentrates on the latter issue, and provides a review of a number of alternative approaches to modelling poaching effort, with extensions. It is found that even low residual prices would induce a level of effort that would significantly depress elephant numbers. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.