Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

被引：23

作者：

Cohen-Charash, Yochi ^{[1
,2
]}

Scherbaum, Charles A. ^{[1
,2
]}

Kammeyer-Mueller, John D. ^{[3
]}

Staw, Barry M. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] CUNY, Baruch Coll, Dept Psychol, New York, NY 10021 USA

[2] CUNY, Grad Ctr, New York, NY USA

[3] Univ Florida, Warrington Coll Business Adm, Gainesville, FL USA

[4] Univ Calif Berkeley, Walter A Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

来源：

PLOS ONE | 2013年 / 8卷 / 08期

关键词：

DECISION-MAKING; POSITIVE AFFECT; RISK-TAKING; EXPECTED FEEDBACK; NEGATIVE AFFECT; FINANCIAL RISK; MANAGING MOODS; AROUSAL; INFORMATION; EMOTION;

D O I：

10.1371/journal.pone.0072031

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

引用

页数：15

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