Predicting ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis

被引:33
作者
Vile, J. L. [1 ]
Gillard, J. W. [1 ]
Harper, P. R. [1 ]
Knight, V. A. [1 ]
机构
[1] Cardiff Univ, Sch Math, Cardiff CF24 4AG, S Glam, Wales
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;
关键词
health service; emergency medical services; forecasting; singular spectrum analysis; MANAGEMENT SCIENCE; TIME-SERIES; URBAN AREA; SERVICE; REQUIREMENTS; DYNAMICS; MODELS;
D O I
10.1057/jors.2011.160
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
This paper demonstrates techniques to generate accurate predictions of demand exerted upon the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) using data provided by the Welsh Ambulance Service Trust (WAST). The aim is to explore new methods to produce accurate forecasts that can be subsequently embedded into current OR methodologies to optimise resource allocation of vehicles and staff, and allow rapid response to potentially life-threatening emergencies. Our analysis explores a relatively new non-parametric technique for time series analysis known as Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). We explain the theory of SSA and evaluate the performance of this approach by comparing the results with those produced by conventional time series methods. We show that in addition to being more flexible in approach, SSA produces superior longer-term forecasts (which are especially helpful for EMS planning), and comparable shorter-term forecasts to well established methods. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2012) 63, 1556-1565. doi: 10.1057/jors.2011.160 published online 22 February 2012
引用
收藏
页码:1556 / 1565
页数:10
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