Trends of climate change in the Lower Indus Basin region of Pakistan Future implications for agriculture

Purpose - Lower Indus Basin (LIB) region is the food basket of Pakistan, and climatic variation in response to global warming might severely affect the crop production and, thus, food security and ultimately to the economy of the country. Design/methodology/approach - The authors analyzed the previous climatic factors data series of LIB region to investigate the past and present climatic trends and to predict the future changes. Climatic changes were monitored by studying temperature, rainfall and relative humidity (RH) dynamics at two locations (Lahore and Multan) of the LIB region, Pakistan, by using data from 1953 to 2006. The data were divided into two equal halves (1953-1979 and 1980-2006) and statistically compared for the aforementioned weather parameters. Findings - The results suggested that mean minimum temperature (MMT) and overall mean temperature in winter were significantly increased, whereas few summer months had also experienced the reduction in both temperatures. However, few minor changes were also observed for the mean maximum temperature at both locations. The rainfall amount did not vary significantly at both locations, with the exception for the months of February and June at Lahore location, which experienced relatively higher rainfall in latter period (1980-2006). However, morning and evening RH was significantly increased at Multan throughout the year and for some selected months (February-March and May-July) at Lahore. However, the comparison of climatic data of both temporal halves suggested either dryer weather during winter months because of increase in MMT and/or increase in area under irrigated agriculture, resulting in more evaporation at both locations. Similarly, the data also indicated the early monsoon rainfall patterns in summer and late western depression rainfall spell during winter, which played key role to affect the crop yield because of irregular rain events. Research limitations/implications - The current manuscript would be very useful for the disaster management authorities and agriculture sector to predict the future irregular trends of climate change in Pakistan. Moreover, current findings can be important tool toward the management of climatic changes issues (i.e. floods and dryer spells) and to formulate the future strategies for the improved crop growth in arid and/or semi-arid developing nations such as Pakistan. Originality/value - The current manuscript, for the very first time, provided detailed insights into key climatic factors changes for past seven decades, into the severely climate change-affected areas of the world. Furthermore, agricultural sector is likely to be severely affected because of minor seasonal change in temperature and moisture, and have a strong food security impact, which can be reflected with current data set to cope with both ecological and economic impacts of climate change in Pakistan. The current findings would be useful to manage the climate change-related issues in Pakistan, including the social, environmental and economic.