Contagion and trade - Why are currency crises regional?

被引：325

作者：

Glick, R

Rose, AK

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA

[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE | 1999年 / 18卷 / 04期

关键词：

speculative; attack; exchange rate; international; macroeconomic; empirical;

D O I：

10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00023-6

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994 and 1997) we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence of speculative attacks. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. JEL classification: F32.

引用

页码：603 / 617

页数：15