The sustainability evaluation model of irrigation district groundwater resources carrying capacity based on catastrophe theory

A novel evaluation method based on catastrophe theory was introduced in this paper. The proposed method is easy for calculation, and it is not necessary to define the weight of evaluation indices so that the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized. Aimed at disadvantages of normal catastrophe evaluation method, an improved method was presented by adjusting the final comprehensive evaluation values using a polynomial curve fitting. On the basis of gained polynomial, the calculated ordinary catastrophic values were adjusted, which makes the classification of evaluation result clearer. Finally, taking the People's Victory Canal, Henan province of China as a real example, the groundwater resources carrying capacity of the irrigation areas is evaluated using the improved catastrophe evaluation method. The result is in accordance with the actual situation and is consistent with that derived from fuzzy assessment. This evaluation result can therefore offer a valuable reference for sustainable development of irrigation areas.