Study of dynamic model for making an effect evaluation of Yangtze River-Taihu Lake water transfer

At present, assessment of nutrition status of water body in Taihu Lake is relatively static and instantaneous based on only a few data which are not adequate and appropriate, thereby assessment results can not reflect the changing characteristics of nutrition status in typical aging of water. Numerical model can simulate relatively accurately the spatiotemporal distribution and varying process of nutrition indices under ambient pressure condition, whereas static evaluation model of take nutrition status can figure out transient lake nutrition status. Combining features of numerical model and projection pursuit method, projection pursuit dynamic grade evaluation model based on numerical simulation is build up in order to investigate the impact of water transfer to Taihu Lake and evaluate real-time nutrition status of water body. Case study reveals that coupling model can simulate spatiotemporal distribution and changing event of water quality indices in Gong Lake Bay of Taihu Lake correctly as well as evaluate nutrition status of water body in Gong Lake Bay dynamically during typical water transfer, fortunately, the evaluation results approach to real changing process of nutrition status, which demonstrate the rationality and validity of this model.