Prognostic utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Score and amino terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide in varying stages of systolic heart failure

BACKGROUND: Cardiac transplantation represents the best procedure to improve long-term clinical outcome in advanced chronic heart failure (CHF), if pre-selection criteria are sufficient to outweigh the risk of the failing heart over the risk of transplantation. Although the cornerstone of success, risk assessment in heart transplant candidates is still under-investigated Amino terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is regarded as the best predictor of outcome in CHF, and the Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS), including clinical markers, is widely used if NT-proBNP is unavailable. METHODS: The present study assessed the predictive value for all-cause death of the SHFS in CHF patients and compared it with NT-proBNP in a multivariate model including established baseline parameters known to predict survival. RESULTS: A total of 429 patients receiving stable HF-specific pharmacotherapy were included and monitored for 53.4 +/- 20.6 months. Of these, 133 patients (31%) died during follow-up. Several established predictors of death on univariate analysis proved significant for the total study cohort. Systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.05); p < 0.001, Wald 15.1), logNT-proBNP (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.22-1.86; p < 0.001, Wald 14.9), and the SHFS (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00; p < 0.001, Wald 12.6) remained within the stepwise multivariate Cox regression model as independent predictors of all-cause death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.802 for logNT-proBNP and 0.762 for the SHFS. CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP is a more potent marker to identify patients at the highest risk. If the NT-proBNP measurement is unavailable, the SHFS may serve as an adequate clinical surrogate to predict all-cause death. J Heart Lung Transplant 2013;32:533-538 (C) 2013 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.