A statistical theory of fatigue crack growth at damage cumulation

A statistical theory of the fatigue crack growth at damage cumulation is proposed. The theory gives the average of fatigue crack length at any time t, and deduces the evolution of failure probability with time varying. Furthermore, the variance and relative error of fatigue crack length at any time t are acquired. The Paris equation for the average of the crack length at any time t is derived from the statistical theory. Therefore, the prediction of the probability distribution of the crack length can be given for any time t. Actual applications of the theory are given, which conform to the experiments.