Ice Cores and Emulation: Learning More About Past Ice Sheet Shapes

被引：0
|
作者：
Turner, Fiona [1 ]
Wilkinson, Richard [1 ]
Buck, Caitlin [1 ]
Jones, Julie [2 ]
Sime, Louise [3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Sheffield, Sch Math & Stat, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England
[2] Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England
[3] British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, England
来源：
BAYESIAN STATISTICS AND NEW GENERATIONS, BAYSM 2018 | 2019年 / 296卷
关键词：
Antarctic ice sheets; Expert elicitation; Principal component analysis; Subjective Bayesian methods; MODEL;
D O I：
10.1007/978-3-030-30611-3_18
中图分类号：
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号：
070104 ;
摘要：
Creating more accurate reconstructions of past Antarctic ice sheet shapes allows us to better predict how they will vary in the changing climate and contribute to future sea level changes. In this research, we use expert elicitation to create a subjective prior distribution of the Antarctic ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21Ka. A design of shapes from this distribution will be run through the global climate model HadCM3, providing us with output that we can compare with proxy data to find a better estimate of the ice sheet shape at the LGM.
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页码：175 / 182
页数：8
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