Formal Modeling and Analysis for Power Grid Operation Risk

As more and more coupled facilities being integrated into the electric system, the system operation is changing into a high risk level. The spreading of a small failure can result a big disaster in many large-scale electric systems. Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a conventional risk analysis approach which has a worldwide recognition in the past years. This paper proposes a formal modeling approach for electric system operation risk, in which the failure modes are defined as the inherent features of the system components. Then, we propose a structured modeling technique for representing FMEA causal knowledge in unified Boolean matrices. By searching the reasoning matrices iteratively, the system effects of the certain bottom-level failure events can be found automatically. The result points out more important focus to handle, advance the treatment order of the failure events, and so improve the efficiency of risk management.