Grade inflation versus grade improvement: Are our students getting more intelligent?

The move from elite to mass systems of higher education has been accompanied by concerns relating to the quality of provision and standards, particularly in relation to the increasing proportion of higher grades awarded to students. Bayesian multilevel models were used to investigate the temporal trend of grade attainment in 101 higher education providers across the UK, between the 2009/10 and 2018/19 academic years, to understand if rising grades are due to inflation or a consequence of improvements across the higher education system. The results suggest a much more positive and proactive picture of a higher education system that is engaged in a process of continuous enhancement. The unexplained variables, rather than automatically being labelled as grade inflation, should instead point to a need to investigate further the local institutional contextual factors that inform grade distribution. The deficit lens through which 'grade inflation' is often perceived is a damaging and unhelpful distraction. Measures, such as improved assessment literacy, are suggested as approaches that the sector could adopt to further develop its understanding of grade improvement as opposed to grade inflation.