A nomogram to predict the probability of live birth after clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility

Objective: To establish whether initial screening characteristics of normogonadotropic anovulatory infertile women can aid in predicting live birth after induction of ovulation with clomiphene citrate (CC). Design: Prospective longitudinal single-center study. Setting: Specialist academic fertility unit. Patient(s): Two hundred fifty-nine couples with a history of infertility, oligoamenorrhea, and normal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) concentrations who have not been previously treated with any ovulation-induction medication. Intervention(s): 50, 100, or 150 mg of oral CC per day, for 5 subsequent days per cycle. Main Outcome Measure(s): Conception leading to live birth after CC administration. Result(s): After receiving CC, 98 (38%) women conceived, leading to live birth. The cumulative live birth rate within 12 months was 42% for the total study population and 56% for the ovulatory women who had received CC. Factors predicting the chances for live birth included free androgen index (testosterone/sex hormone-binding globulin ratio), body mass index, cycle history (oligomenorrhea versus amenorrhea), and the woman's age. Conclusion(s): It is possible to predict the individual chances of live birth after CC administration using two distinct prediction models combined in a nomogram. Applying this nomogram in the clinic may be a step forward in optimizing the decision-making process in the treatment of normogonadotropic anovulatory infertility. Alternative first line of treatment options could be considered for some women who have limited chances for success. (Fertil Steril(R) 2002;77:91-7. (C) 2002 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.).