A STATISTICAL ARI MA MODEL TO PREDICT ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR NSR SHIPPING

被引：0
作者：
Wu, Da [1 ]
Lang, Xiao [1 ]
Zhang, Di [2 ]
Eriksson, Leif
Mao, Wengang [1 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Mech & Maritime Sci, SE-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden
[2] Wuhan Univ Technol, Natl Engn Res, Ctr Water Transport Safety, Wuhan 430000, Peoples R China
[3] Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, SE-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden
来源：
PROCEEDINGS OF ASME 2021 40TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON OCEAN, OFFSHORE AND ARCTIC ENGINEERING (OMAE2021), VOL 7 | 2021年
基金：
美国国家科学基金会; 欧盟地平线“2020”;
关键词：
Sea-ice concentration; ARIMA model; Arctic shipping;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
U6 [水路运输]; P75 [海洋工程];
学科分类号：
0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;
摘要：
Reliable sea ice concentration (SIC)information assists the safe and energy-efficient ship navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). In particular, the accurate SIC forecast is a top priority. This study proposes a statistical interpolation method to reduce the errors induced by the traditional interpolation method. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (AR/MA) model is developed based on reanalysis data. The AR/MA model can be used for short-term SIC forecasts along the NSR. Model validation has been conducted through a specially designed cross-validation. The route availability is estimated according to the SIC forecast. The results indicate that the specified NSR will be open for shipping from 2021 to 2024. The work also indicates the feasibility of the proposed statistical models to assist NSR shipping management.
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页数：10
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