Long-term nutrient trends and harmful cyanobacterial bloom potential in hypertrophic Lake Taihu, China

Rapid economic development in China's Lake Taihu basin during the past four decades has accelerated nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loadings to the lake. This has caused a shift from mesotrophic to hypertrophic conditions, symptomized by harmful cyanobacterial blooms (CyanoHABs). The relationships between phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll a (Chla) and nutrients as total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were analyzed using historical data from 1992 to 2012 to link the response of CyanoHAB potential to long-term nutrient changes. Over the twenty year study period, annual mean Chla showed significantly positive correlations with both annual mean TN and TP (P < 0.001), reflecting a strong phytoplankton biomass response to changes in nutrient inputs to the lake. However, phytoplankton biomass responded slowly to annual changes in TN after 2002. There was not a well-defined or significant relationship between spring TN and summertime Chla. The loss of a significant fraction of spring N loading due to denitrification likely weakened this relationship. Bioavailability of both N and P during the summer plays a key role in sustaining cyanobacterial blooms. The frequency of occurrence of bloom level Chla (>20 mu g L-1) was compared to TN and TP to determine nutrient-bloom thresholds. A decline in bloom risk is expected if TN remains below 1.0 mg L-1 and TP below 0.08 mg L-1.