Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

被引：319
作者：
Balcan, Duygu [1 ,2 ]
Goncalves, Bruno [1 ,2 ]
Hu, Hao [3 ]
Ramasco, Jose J. [4 ]
Colizza, Vittoria [4 ]
Vespignani, Alessandro [1 ,2 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] Indiana Univ, Ctr Complex Networks & Syst Res CNetS, Sch Informat & Comp, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA
[2] Indiana Univ, Pervas Technol Inst, Bloomington, IN 47406 USA
[3] Indiana Univ, Dept Phys, Bloomington, IN 47406 USA
[4] Inst Sci Interchange, Computat Epidemiol Lab, Turin, Italy
来源：
JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE | 2010年 / 1卷 / 03期
关键词：
Computational epidemiology; Complex networks; Multiscale phenomena; Human mobility; Infectious diseases; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; STRATEGIES; NETWORK; TRAVEL;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jocs.2010.07.002
中图分类号：
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号：
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要：
Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：132 / 145
页数：14
相关论文
共 40 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], GRIDD POP WORLD VERS
[2]   Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases [J].
Balcan, Duygu ;
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Goncalves, Bruno ;
Hu, Hao ;
Ramasco, Jose J. ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2009, 106 (51) :21484-21489
[3]   Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility [J].
Balcan, Duygu ;
Hu, Hao ;
Goncalves, Bruno ;
Bajardi, Paolo ;
Poletto, Chiara ;
Ramasco, Jose J. ;
Paolotti, Daniela ;
Perra, Nicola ;
Tizzoni, Michele ;
Van den Broeck, Wouter ;
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
BMC MEDICINE, 2009, 7 :45
[4]   The architecture of complex weighted networks [J].
Barrat, A ;
Barthélemy, M ;
Pastor-Satorras, R ;
Vespignani, A .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2004, 101 (11) :3747-3752
[5]   Sampling for Global Epidemic Models and the Topology of an International Airport Network [J].
Bobashev, Georgiy ;
Morris, Robert J. ;
Goedecke, D. Michael .
PLOS ONE, 2008, 3 (09)
[6]   Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: A review of volunteer challenge studies [J].
Carrat, Fabrice ;
Vergu, Elisabeta ;
Ferguson, Neil M. ;
Lemaitre, Magali ;
Cauchemez, Simon ;
Leach, Steve ;
Valleron, Alain-Jacques .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2008, 167 (07) :775-785
[7]   The modeling of global epidemics: Stochastic dynamics and predictability [J].
Colizza V. ;
Barrat A. ;
Barthélemy M. ;
Vespignani A. .
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 2006, 68 (8) :1893-1921
[8]   The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics [J].
Colizza, V ;
Barrat, A ;
Barthélemy, M ;
Vespignani, A .
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2006, 103 (07) :2015-2020
[9]   Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions [J].
Colizza, Vittoria ;
Barrat, Alain ;
Barthelemy, Marc ;
Valleron, Alain-Jacques ;
Vespignani, Alessandro .
PLOS MEDICINE, 2007, 4 (01) :95-110
[10]   Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza [J].
Cooper, Ben S. ;
Pitman, Richard J. ;
Edmunds, W. John ;
Gay, Nigel J. .
PLOS MEDICINE, 2006, 3 (06) :845-855
1234