Trade and the Global Recession

被引：182

作者：

Eaton, Jonathan ^{[1
,2
]}

Kortum, Samuel ^{[2
,3
]}

Neiman, Brent ^{[2
,4
]}

Romalis, John ^{[2
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Penn State Univ, Dept Econ, 609 Kern Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Yale Univ, Dept Econ, Box 208264, New Haven, CT 06520 USA

[4] Univ Chicago, Booth Sch Business, 5807 S Woodlawn Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA

[5] Univ Sydney, Sch Econ, Room 370,Merewether Bldg H04, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

来源：

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2016年 / 106卷 / 11期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; BUSINESS-CYCLE; PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES; VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; INTERMEDIATE INPUTS; CAPITAL GOODS; INVESTMENT; COLLAPSE; CRISIS;

D O I：

10.1257/aer.20101557

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We develop a dynamic multicountry general equilibrium model to investigate forces acting on the global economy during the Great Recession and ensuing recovery. Our multisector framework accounts completely for countries' trade, investment, production, and GDPs in terms of different sets of shocks. Applying the model to 21 countries, we investigate the 29 percent drop in world trade in manufactures during the period 2008-2009. A shift in final spending away from tradable sectors, largely caused by declines in durables investment efficiency, accounts for most of the collapse in trade relative to GDP. Shocks to trade frictions, productivity, and demand play minor roles.

引用

页码：3401 / 3438

页数：38

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