Comparing deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site in China

被引：5
作者：
Jia, Xiaoyang [1 ]
Xia, Tianxiang [1 ]
Zhong, Maosheng [1 ]
Liang, Jing [1 ]
机构：
[1] Beijing Municipal Res Inst Environm Protect, Natl Urban Environm Pollut Control Engn Tech Res, Beijing 100037, Peoples R China
来源：
PROGRESS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, PTS 1-4 | 2013年 / 610-613卷
关键词：
probabilistic risk assessment; PAHs; risk; soil; a coking plant; CONTAMINANT FATE; CLEANUP LEVELS; EXPOSURE; UNCERTAINTY;
D O I：
10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.610-613.798
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and deterministic risk assessment (DRA) at a coking plant site were compared. By DRA, Hazard Quotient (HQ) following exposure to Naphthalene (Nap) and Incremental Life Cancer Risk (ILCR) following exposure to Benzo(a)pyrene (Bap) are 1.87 and 2.12x10(-4). PRA reveals valuable information regarding the possible distribution of risk, and the outputs show that Nap HQ ranges from 6.18x10(-7) to 6.62 and Bap ILCR ranges from 8.67x10(-10) to 6.89x10(-4). Risk estimates of DRA locates at the 99.59th and 99.76th percentiles in the risk outputs of PRA, indicating the DRA overestimates the risk. Sensitivity analysis was done by calculating a contribution to variance for each exposure parameter and it is found that contaminant concentration in the soil (C-s), exposure duration (ED), soil ingestion rate (IRs) are the most important parameters for risk calculations.
引用
收藏
页码：798 / 803
页数：6
相关论文
共 19 条
  • [1] Managing Uncertainty in Risk-Based Corrective Action Design: Global Sensitivity Analysis of Contaminant Fate and Exposure Models Used in the Dose Assessment
    Avagliano, S.
    Parrella, L.
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT, 2009, 14 (01) : 47 - 57
  • [2] Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, 2009, ENV SIT ASS GUID
  • [3] Target cleanup levels at the site of a former manufactured gas plant in northern Italy: Deterministic versus probabilistic results
    Bonomo, L
    Caserini, S
    Pozzi, C
    Uguccioni, DA
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, 2000, 34 (18) : 3843 - 3848
  • [4] Comparing deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments for sites contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)
    Bruce, Erica D.
    Abusalih, Afraa A.
    McDonald, Thomas J.
    Autenrieth, Robin L.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND HEALTH PART A-TOXIC/HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING, 2007, 42 (06): : 697 - 706
  • [5] MEASURES OF COMPOUNDING CONSERVATISM IN PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
    CULLEN, AC
    [J]. RISK ANALYSIS, 1994, 14 (04) : 389 - 393
  • [6] Elliott P L, 1995, USE RISK BASED DECIS
  • [7] Hou Y., 2011, CHINESE HLTH YB 2010
  • [8] [贾晓洋 Jia Xiaoyang], 2011, [化工学报, Journal of Chemical Industry and Engineering (China)], V62, P3525
  • [9] Jin S.G., 2008, REPORT NUTR HLTH CON
  • [10] Derivation of Soil Clean-Up Levels for 2,3,7,8-Tetrachloro-dibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) Toxicity Equivalence (TEQD/F) in Soil Through Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Exposure and Toxicity
    Kirman, Chris
    Budinsky, Robert A.
    Yost, Lisa
    Baker, Ben F.
    Zabik, Jack M.
    Rowlands, J. Craig
    Long, Tom F.
    Simon, Ted
    [J]. HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT, 2011, 17 (01): : 125 - 158
12