Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico

被引：54

作者：

Bisanzio, Donal ^{[1
,2
]}

Dzul-Manzanilla, Felipe ^{[3
]}

Gomez-Dantes, Hector ^{[4
]}

Pavia-Ruz, Norma ^{[5
]}

Hladish, Thomas J. ^{[6
,7
]}

Lenhart, Audrey ^{[8
]}

Palacio-Vargas, Jorge ^{[9
]}

Gonzalez Roldan, Jesus F. ^{[3
]}

Correa-Morales, Fabian ^{[3
]}

Sanchez-Tejeda, Gustavo ^{[3
]}

Kuri Morales, Pablo ^{[10
]}

Manrique-Saide, Pablo ^{[11
]}

Longini, Ira M. ^{[7
,12
,13
]}

Halloran, M. Elizabeth ^{[13
,14
,15
]}

Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M. ^{[16
]}

机构：

[1] RTI Int, Washington, DC USA

[2] Sacro Cuore Don Calabria Hosp, Ctr Trop Dis, Verona, Italy

[3] Secretaria Salud Mexico, Ctr Nacl Programas Prevent & Control Enfermedades, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

[4] Natl Inst Publ Hlth, Hlth Syst Res Ctr, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

[5] Univ Autonoma Yucatan, Ctr Invest Reg Hideyo Noguchi, Merida, Mexico

[6] Univ Florida, Dept Biol, Gainesville, FL USA

[7] Univ Florida, Emerging Pathogens Inst, Gainesville, FL USA

[8] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Atlanta, GA USA

[9] Secretaria Salud Yucatan, Merida, Mexico

[10] Subsecretarra Prevenc & Promoc Salud, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

[11] Univ Autonoma Yucatan, Unidad Colaborat Bioensayos Entomol, Campus Ciencias Biol & Agr, Merida, Mexico

[12] Univ Florida, Dept Biostat, Gainesville, FL USA

[13] Ctr Inference & Dynam Infect Dis, Seattle, WA USA

[14] Fred Hutchinson Canc Res Ctr, Vaccine & Infect Dis Div, 1124 Columbia St, Seattle, WA 98104 USA

[15] Univ Washington, Dept Biostat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[16] Emory Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA

来源：

PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES | 2018年 / 12卷 / 03期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 加拿大健康研究院; 美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

VIRUS; SURVEILLANCE;

D O I：

10.1371/journal.pntd.0006298

中图分类号：

R51 [传染病];

学科分类号：

100401 ;

摘要：

Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008-2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W> 0.63; p< 0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.

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