Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to prioritize hospital admission of patients affected by COVID-19 in low-resource settings with hospital-bed shortage

Objective: To use Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to determine weights for eleven criteria in order to prioritize COVID-19 non-critical patients for admission to hospital in healthcare settings with limited resources. Methods: The MCDA was applied in two main steps: specification of criteria for prioritizing COVID-19 patients (and levels within each criterion); and determination of weights for the criteria based on experts' knowledge and experience in managing COVID-19 patients, via an online survey. Criteria were selected based on available COVID-19 evidence with a focus on lowand middle-income countries (LMICs). Results: The most important criteria (mean weights, summing to 100%) are: PaO2 (16.3%); peripheral O-2 saturation (15.9%); chest X-ray (14.1%); Modified Early Warning Score-MEWS (11.4%); respiratory rate (9.5%); comorbidities (6.5%); living with vulnerable people (6.4%); body mass index (5.6%); duration of symptoms before hospital evaluation (5.4%); CRP (5.1%); and age (3.8%). Conclusions: At the beginning of a new pandemic, when evidence for disease predictors is limited or unavailable and effective national contingency plans are difficult to establish, the MCDA prioritization model could play a pivotal role in improving the response of health systems. (c) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-ncnd/4.0/).