Progressively Tougher Sanctioning and Recidivism: Assessing the Effects of Different Types of Sanctions

Objectives: The study tests two related hypotheses about recidivist sentencing premiums and the progressive sanctioning logic on which they rest: (1) among first-time felons, punitive sanctions will more effectively reduce recidivism than will less severe sanctions and (2) among second-time felons, progressively tougher sanctions will more effectively reduce recidivism than will progressions to comparable or less severe sanctions. Method: We use data on first-time and second-time felons and propensity score matching analyses to test these two hypotheses. Results: Although tougher punishment, and increasingly tougher punishment among second-time offenders, may sometimes reduce recidivism, less severe punishment appears on average to be more effective. Conclusions: The results raise questions about the effects of both tougher, and progressively tougher, types of sanctions in efforts to reduce recidivism.