Assessment of Human-to-Human Transmissibility of Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Across 5 Waves by Analyzing Clusters of Case Patients in Mainland China, 2013-2017

被引：27
作者：
Wang, Xiling [1 ]
Wu, Peng [2 ]
Pei, Yao [1 ]
Tsang, Tim K. [3 ,4 ]
Gu, Dantong [1 ]
Wang, Wei [1 ]
Zhang, Juanjuan [1 ]
Horby, Peter W. [5 ]
Uyeki, Timothy M. [6 ]
Cowling, Benjamin J. [2 ]
Yu, Hongjie [1 ]
机构：
[1] Fudan Univ, Key Lab Publ Hlth Safety, Minist Educ, Sch Publ Hlth, 138 Yixueyuan Rd, Shanghai 200032, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Hong Kong, Sch Publ Hlth, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, World Hlth Org Collaborating Ctr Infect Dis Epide, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Florida, Coll Publ Hlth & Hlth Profess, Dept Biostat, Gainesville, FL USA
[4] Univ Florida, Coll Med, Gainesville, FL USA
[5] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Med, Ctr Trop Med & Global Hlth, Oxford, England
[6] Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Influenza Div, Natl Ctr Immunizat & Resp Dis, Atlanta, GA USA
来源：
CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2019年 / 68卷 / 04期
基金：
美国国家卫生研究院; 中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
influenza A(H7N9); cluster; human-to-human transmissibility; genetic susceptibility; A H7N9 VIRUS; HUMAN INFECTIONS; 5TH EPIDEMIC; SUSCEPTIBILITY; INCREASE;
D O I：
10.1093/cid/ciy541
中图分类号：
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号：
100102 ;
摘要：
Background. The 2016-17 epidemic of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was alarming, due to the surge in reported cases across a wide geographic area and the emergence of highly-pathogenic A(H7N9) viruses. Our study aimed to assess whether the human-to-human transmission risk of A(H7N9) virus has changed across the 5 waves since 2013. Methods. Data on human cases and clusters of A(H7N9) virus infection were collected from the World Health Organization, open access national and provincial reports, informal online sources, and published literature. We compared the epidemiological characteristics of sporadic and cluster cases, estimated the relative risk (RR) of infection in blood relatives and non-blood relatives, and estimated the bounds on the effective reproductive number (R-e) across waves from 2013 through September 2017. Results. We identified 40 human clusters of A(H7N9) virus infection, with a median cluster size of 2 (range 2-3). The overall RR of infection in blood relatives versus non-blood relatives was 1.65 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88, 3.09), and was not significantly different across waves (chi(2)=2.66, P=.617). The upper limit of R-e for A(H7N9) virus was 0.12 (95% CI: 0.10, 0.14) and was not significantly different across waves (chi(2)=1.52, P=.822). Conclusions. The small cluster size and low R-e suggest that human-to-human transmissibility of A(H7N9) virus has not changed over time and remains limited to date. Continuous assessment of A(H7N9) virus infections and human case clusters is of crucial importance for public health.
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收藏
页码：623 / 631
页数：9
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