Using Early Childhood Behavior Problems to Predict Adult Convictions

被引:21
作者
Kassing, Francesca [1 ]
Godwin, Jennifer [2 ]
Lochman, John E. [1 ,5 ]
Coie, John D. [2 ,4 ]
Bierman, Karen L. [3 ]
Coie, John D. [2 ,4 ]
Dodge, Kenneth A. [4 ]
Greenberg, Mark T. [3 ]
Lochman, John E. [1 ,5 ]
McMahon, Robert J. [6 ,7 ]
Pinderhughes, Ellen E. [8 ]
机构
[1] Univ Alabama, Dept Psychol, Box 870348, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487 USA
[2] Duke Univ, Ctr Child & Family Policy, Box 90545, Durham, NC 27708 USA
[3] Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
[4] Duke Univ, Durham, NC USA
[5] Univ Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL USA
[6] Simon Fraser Univ, Burnaby, BC, Canada
[7] BC Childrens Hosp, Vancouver, BC, Canada
[8] Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA
基金
加拿大创新基金会;
关键词
Screening; Preventative intervention; Convictions; Base rates; OPPOSITIONAL DEFIANT DISORDER; CONDUCT PROBLEMS; EXTERNALIZING BEHAVIOR; URBAN AREAS; CHILDREN; PREVENTION; RISK; KINDERGARTEN; ACCURACY; SYMPTOMS;
D O I
10.1007/s10802-018-0478-7
中图分类号
B849 [应用心理学];
学科分类号
040203 ;
摘要
The current study examined whether teacher and parent ratings of externalizing behavior during kindergarten and 1st grade accurately predicted the presence of adult convictions by age 25. Data were collected as part of the Fast Track Project. Schools were identified based on poverty and crime rates in four locations: Durham, NC, Nashville, TN, Seattle, WA, and rural, central PA. Teacher and parent screening measures of externalizing behavior were collected at the end of kindergarten and 1st grade. ROC curves were used to visually depict the tradeoff between sensitivity and specificity and best model fit was determined. Five of the six combinations of screen scores across time points and raters met both the specificity and sensitivity cutoffs for a well-performing screening tool. When data were examined within each site separately, screen scores performed better in sites with high base rates and models including single teacher screens accurately predicted convictions. Similarly, screen scores performed better and could be used more parsimoniously for males, but not females (whose base rates were lower in this sample). Overall, results indicated that early elementary screens for conduct problems perform remarkably well when predicting criminal convictions 20years later. However, because of variations in base rates, screens operated differently by gender and location. The results indicated that for populations with high base rates, convictions can be accurately predicted with as little as one teacher screen taken during kindergarten or 1st grade, increasing the cost-effectiveness of preventative interventions.
引用
收藏
页码:765 / 778
页数:14
相关论文
共 39 条
[1]  
Achenbach T.M., 1982, DEV PSYCHOPATHOL
[2]  
Achenbach TM., 1991, Manual for the Child Behavior Checklist/2-3 and profile
[3]  
[Anonymous], 1999, J Consult Clin Psychol, V67, P631
[4]   Teacher (Mis)Perceptions of Preschoolers' Academic Skills: Predictors and Associations With Longitudinal Outcomes [J].
Baker, Courtney N. ;
Tichovolsky, Marianne H. ;
Kupersmidt, Janis B. ;
Voegler-Lee, Mary Ellen ;
Arnold, David H. .
JOURNAL OF EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY, 2015, 107 (03) :805-820
[5]   Predicting conduct problems: Can high-risk children be identified in kindergarten and grade 1? [J].
Bennett, KJ ;
Lipman, EL ;
Brown, S ;
Racine, Y ;
Boyle, MH ;
Offord, DR .
JOURNAL OF CONSULTING AND CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY, 1999, 67 (04) :470-480
[6]   Annotation: Do measures of externalising behaviour in normal populations predict later outcome?: Implications for targeted interventions to prevent conduct disorder [J].
Bennett, KJ ;
Lipman, EL ;
Racine, Y ;
Offord, DR .
JOURNAL OF CHILD PSYCHOLOGY AND PSYCHIATRY, 1998, 39 (08) :1059-1070
[7]   Screening for conduct problems: Does the predictive accuracy of conduct disorder symptoms improve with age? [J].
Bennett, KJ ;
Offord, DR .
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF CHILD AND ADOLESCENT PSYCHIATRY, 2001, 40 (12) :1418-1425
[8]   A DEVELOPMENTAL AND CLINICAL-MODEL FOR THE PREVENTION OF CONDUCT DISORDER - THE FAST-TRACK-PROGRAM [J].
BIERMAN, KL ;
COIE, JD ;
DODGE, KA ;
GREENBERG, MT ;
LOCHMAN, JE ;
MCMAHON, RJ .
DEVELOPMENT AND PSYCHOPATHOLOGY, 1992, 4 (04) :509-527
[9]  
Bierman KL, 2000, ADDICT BEHAV, V25, P913
[10]   Multimodel inference - understanding AIC and BIC in model selection [J].
Burnham, KP ;
Anderson, DR .
SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH, 2004, 33 (02) :261-304