The predictive power of risk preference measures for farming decisions

被引：60

作者：

Hellerstein, Daniel ^{[1
]}

Higgins, Nathaniel ^{[1
]}

Horowitz, John ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] USDA, Washington, DC 20036 USA

来源：

EUROPEAN REVIEW OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 2013年 / 40卷 / 05期

关键词：

risk preference; best management practices; farmer risk aversion; HoltLaury risk measure; TILLAGE SYSTEMS; ELICITING RISK; UNCERTAINTY; ATTITUDES; ADOPTION; AGRICULTURE; AVERSION; DIVERSIFICATION; HETEROGENEITY; DETERMINANTS;

D O I：

10.1093/erae/jbs043

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;

摘要：

This paper uses a lottery-choice mechanism to measure farmer preferences over money-denominated risks. We look at the ability of these choice data to predict farming decisions for an in-person sample of 68 farmers. A coarse version of our risk preference measure has substantial explanatory power but in an unexpected direction: a farmer who was more risk averse under our measure was less likely to have diversified his operation and less likely to have a crop insurance contract. A fine version of our risk preference measure has essentially no explanatory power. We conclude that despite their widespread use in the lab, lottery-choice measures of risk preferences are unproven for predicting real world farming behaviour.

引用

页码：807 / 833

页数：27

共 53 条

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