Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise

被引：50

作者：

Hunter, J. R. ^{[1
]}

Church, J. A. ^{[2
]}

White, N. J. ^{[2
]}

Zhang, X. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Antarctic Climate & Ecosyst Cooperat Res Ctr, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia

[2] CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Ctr Australian Weather & Climate Res & Wealth Oce, Hobart, Tas 7000, Australia

来源：

OCEAN ENGINEERING | 2013年 / 71卷

关键词：

Sea-level rise; Storm tide; Climate change; Climate projection; CLIMATE-CHANGE; ECONOMICS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.oceaneng.2012.12.041

中图分类号：

U6 [水路运输]; P75 [海洋工程];

学科分类号：

0814 ; 081505 ; 0824 ; 082401 ;

摘要：

Allowances have been developed for future rise of relative sea-level (i.e. sea level relative to the land) based on the projections of regional sea-level rise, its uncertainty, and the statistics of tides and storm surges (storm tides). An 'allowance' is, in this case, the vertical distance that an asset needs to be raised under a rising sea level, so that the present likelihood of flooding does not increase. This continues the work of Hunter (2012), which presented allowances based on global-average sea level and local storm tides. The inclusion of regional variations of sea-level rise (and its uncertainty) significantly increases the global spread of allowances. For the period 1990-2100 and the A1 FI emission scenario (which the world is broadly following at present), these range from negative allowances caused by land uplift (in the northern regions of North America and Europe) to the upper 5-percentile which is greater than about 1 m (e.g. on the eastern coastline of North America). (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：17 / 27

页数：11

共 29 条

[1] Ice-sheet mass balance: assessment, attribution and prognosis [J].

Alley, Richard B. ;

Spencer, Matthew K. ;

Anandakrishnan, Sridhar .

ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, VOL 46, 2007, 2007, 46 :1-+

[2]

Bindoff NL, 2007, AR4 CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P385

[3] Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century [J].

Church, John A. ;

White, Neil J. .

SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS, 2011, 32 (4-5) :585-602

[4] Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change [J].

Church, John A. ;

Gregory, Jonathan M. ;

White, Neil J. ;

Platten, Skye M. ;

Mitrovica, Jerry X. .

OCEANOGRAPHY, 2011, 24 (02) :130-143

[5]

Coles S, 2001, An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values, P45, DOI [DOI 10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0, 10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0]

[6] A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise [J].

Hunter, John .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2012, 113 (02) :239-252

[7]

IPCC, 2018, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT, DOI [DOI 10.2833/9937, DOI 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004]

[8]

ISO (International Standards Organization), 2009, 31000 ISO, P24, DOI DOI 10.5594/J09750

[9] On post-glacial sea level - II. Numerical formulation and comparative results on spherically symmetric models [J].

Kendall, RA ;

Mitrovica, JX ;

Milne, GA .

GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, 2005, 161 (03) :679-706

[10] Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide [J].

Le Quere, Corinne ;

Raupach, Michael R. ;

Canadell, Josep G. ;

Marland, Gregg ;

Bopp, Laurent ;

Ciais, Philippe ;

Conway, Thomas J. ;

Doney, Scott C. ;

Feely, Richard A. ;

Foster, Pru ;

Friedlingstein, Pierre ;

Gurney, Kevin ;

Houghton, Richard A. ;

House, Joanna I. ;

Huntingford, Chris ;

Levy, Peter E. ;

Lomas, Mark R. ;

Majkut, Joseph ;

Metzl, Nicolas ;

Ometto, Jean P. ;

Peters, Glen P. ;

Prentice, I. Colin ;

Randerson, James T. ;

Running, Steven W. ;

Sarmiento, Jorge L. ;

Schuster, Ute ;

Sitch, Stephen ;

Takahashi, Taro ;

Viovy, Nicolas ;

van der Werf, Guido R. ;

Woodward, F. Ian .

NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2009, 2 (12) :831-836

← 1 2 3 →