Understanding African easterly waves: a moist singular vector approach

Moist singular vectors (MSV) have been applied successfully to predicting mid-latitude storms growing in association with latent heat of condensation. Tropical cyclone sensitivity has also been assessed. Extending this approach to more general tropical weather systems here, MSVs are evaluated for understanding and predicting African easterly waves, given the importance of moist processes in their development. First results, without initial moisture perturbations, suggest MSVs may be used advantageously. Perturbations bear similar structural and energy profiles to previous idealised non-linear studies and observations. Strong sensitivities prevail in the metrics and trajectories chosen, and benefits of initial moisture perturbations should be appraised. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society