A continuous modelling approach for design flood estimation on sub-daily time scale

被引：45

作者：

Winter, B. ^{[1
,2
]}

Schneeberger, K. ^{[1
,2
]}

Dung, N. V. ^{[3
]}

Huttenlau, M. ^{[4
]}

Achleitner, S. ^{[5
]}

Stoetter, J. ^{[1
]}

Merz, B. ^{[3
,6
]}

Vorogushyn, S. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Innsbruck, Inst Geog, Innsbruck, Austria

[2] alpS GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria

[3] GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Sect Hydrol, Potsdam, Germany

[4] ILF Consulting Engineers Austria GmbH, Innsbruck, Austria

[5] Univ Innsbruck, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Unit Hydraul Engn, Innsbruck, Austria

[6] Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, Potsdam, Germany

来源：

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL | 2019年 / 64卷 / 05期

关键词：

derived flood frequency; continuous modelling; temporal disaggregation; flood hazard; synthetic flood events; CONTINUOUS SIMULATION; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SPATIAL INTERPOLATION; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; STOCHASTIC RAINFALL; CASCADE MODEL; FREQUENCY; DISAGGREGATION; PEAK; UNCERTAINTY;

D O I：

10.1080/02626667.2019.1593419

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

Design flood estimation is an essential part of flood risk assessment. Commonly applied are flood frequency analyses and design storm approaches, while the derived flood frequency using continuous simulation has been getting more attention recently. In this study, a continuous hydrological modelling approach on an hourly time scale, driven by a multi-site weather generator in combination with a -nearest neighbour resampling procedure, based on the method of fragments, is applied. The derived 100-year flood estimates in 16 catchments in Vorarlberg (Austria) are compared to (a) the flood frequency analysis based on observed discharges, and (b) a design storm approach. Besides the peak flows, the corresponding runoff volumes are analysed. The spatial dependence structure of the synthetically generated flood peaks is validated against observations. It can be demonstrated that the continuous modelling approach can achieve plausible results and shows a large variability in runoff volume across the flood events.

引用

页码：539 / 554

页数：16

共 89 条

[1] Analyzing the operational performance of the hydrological models in an alpine flood forecasting system [J].