Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

被引：77

作者：

Davie, J. C. S. ^{[1
]}

Falloon, P. D. ^{[1
]}

Kahana, R. ^{[1
]}

Dankers, R. ^{[1
]}

Betts, R. ^{[1
]}

Portmann, F. T. ^{[2
,3
,4
,11
]}

Wisser, D. ^{[5
]}

Clark, D. B. ^{[6
]}

Ito, A. ^{[7
]}

Masaki, Y. ^{[7
]}

Nishina, K. ^{[7
]}

Fekete, B. ^{[8
]}

Tessler, Z. ^{[8
]}

Wada, Y. ^{[9
]}

Liu, X. ^{[10
]}

Tang, Q. ^{[10
]}

Hagemann, S. ^{[12
]}

Stacke, T. ^{[12
]}

Pavlick, R. ^{[13
]}

Schaphoff, S. ^{[14
]}

Gosling, S. N. ^{[15
]}

Franssen, W. ^{[16
]}

Arnell, N. ^{[17
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[2] Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr LOEWE BiK F, Frankfurt, Germany

[3] Senckenberg Res Inst, Frankfurt, Germany

[4] Nat Hist Museum, Frankfurt, Germany

[5] Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res, Bonn, Germany

[6] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England

[7] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[8] CUNY City Coll, Dept Civil Engn, New York, NY 10031 USA

[9] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Phys Geog, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands

[10] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China

[11] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, D-60054 Frankfurt, Germany

[12] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

[13] Max Planck Inst Biochem, Jena, Germany

[14] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[15] Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England

[16] Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands

[17] Univ Reading, Walker Inst, Reading RG6 2AH, Berks, England

来源：

EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS | 2013年 / 4卷 / 02期

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; INTEGRATED MODEL; BIAS CORRECTION; SURFACE-WATER; RIVER FLOW; VEGETATION; IMPACT; PRECIPITATION; CO2; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION;

D O I：

10.5194/esd-4-359-2013

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

引用

页码：359 / 374

页数：16

共 79 条

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