A review of scenario planning

被引：549
作者：
Amer, Muhammad [1 ]
Daim, Tugrul U. [1 ]
Jetter, Antonie [1 ]
机构：
[1] Portland State Univ, Dept Engn Mgmt, Portland, OR 97207 USA
来源：
FUTURES | 2013年 / 46卷
关键词：
FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS; STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT; MULTIPLE SCENARIOS; DECISION-MAKING; FORESIGHT; THINKING; FUTURES; TECHNOLOGY; MODEL; TOOL;
D O I：
10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper reviews the scenario planning literature looking for answers for the following questions: How do qualitative and quantitative scenario methods differ and what are the advantages and disadvantages? What methods exist for quantitative scenario planning? Particularly quantitative scenario methods often lead to a large number of so-called "raw" scenarios that need to be further refined, discussed, and verbally described. How do scenario planners select raw scenarios for further exploration and how many should they choose? How is the problem of validation addressed in scenario studies? (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：23 / 40
页数：18
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