Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios

被引：117
作者：
Bedia, J. [1 ]
Herrera, S. [2 ]
Camia, A. [3 ]
Moreno, J. M. [4 ]
Gutierrez, J. M. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Cantabria, CSIC, Inst Fis Cantabria, Grp Meteorol, E-39005 Santander, Spain
[2] Univ Cantabria, Dept Matemat Aplicada & Ciencias Computac, Grp Meteorol, E-39005 Santander, Spain
[3] Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Ispra Varese, Italy
[4] Univ Castilla La Mancha, Dept Ciencias Ambientales, Toledo 45071, Spain
来源：
CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2014年 / 122卷 / 1-2期
关键词：
WEATHER INDEX; TEMPERATURE; SENSITIVITY; PRECIPITATION; PERFORMANCE; SYSTEM;
D O I：
10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System-recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827-840, 2013)-we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region.
引用
收藏
页码：185 / 199
页数：15
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