A Discrete-Time Duration Analysis of Technology Disadoption: The Case of rbST in California

Technology choice is an inherently dynamic process that is best modeled as a repeated decision conditional on past decisions and the current/expected economic environment. Duration analysis recognizes this dynamic nature and focuses on the timing of economic decisions. Most duration studies assume that events occur continuously but in many cases, this is an unrealistic assumption; many events of interest occur at discrete intervals. We demonstrate the use of a discrete-time duration model with an empirical example: the decision to use recombinant bovine Somatotropin (rbST) by California dairy producers. The results of the discrete-time duration analysis suggest that a temporary shortage of rbST had a negligible effect on rbST use, while an rbST ban had a significant and negative effect on rbST use.