Climate variation drives dengue dynamics

被引：169

作者：

Xu, Lei ^{[1
,2
]}

Stige, Leif C. ^{[2
]}

Chan, Kung-Sik ^{[3
]}

Zhou, Jie ^{[4
]}

Yang, Jun ^{[1
]}

Sang, Shaowei ^{[1
]}

Wang, Ming ^{[5
]}

Yang, Zhicong ^{[5
]}

Yan, Ziqiang ^{[5
]}

Jiang, Tong ^{[6
]}

Lu, Liang ^{[1
]}

Yue, Yujuan ^{[1
]}

Liu, Xiaobo ^{[1
]}

Lin, Hualiang ^{[7
]}

Xu, Jianguo ^{[1
]}

Liu, Qiyong ^{[1
,8
,9
]}

Stenseth, Nils Chr. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, CEES, N-0316 Oslo, Norway

[3] Univ Iowa, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA

[4] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[5] Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Trop Dis Res Base, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Guangzhou 510440, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[6] China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

[7] Guangdong Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guangdong Prov Inst Publ Hlth, Guangzhou 511430, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[8] Shandong Univ, Climate Change & Hlth Ctr, Jinan 250012, Peoples R China

[9] World Hlth Org Collaborating Ctr Vector Surveilla, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2017年 / 114卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

dengue; climate; structural equation model; zero-inflated generalized additive models; prediction; AEDES-ALBOPICTUS; EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR; TEMPERATURE; AEGYPTI; FEVER; CHALLENGES; GUANGZHOU;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.1618558114

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.

引用

页码：113 / 118

页数：6

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