Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

被引：194

作者：

Lenoir, Jonathan ^{[1
,2
]}

Graae, Bente Jessen ^{[3
]}

Aarrestad, Per Arild ^{[4
]}

Alsos, Inger Greve ^{[5
]}

Armbruster, W. Scott ^{[3
,6
,7
]}

Austrheim, Gunnar ^{[8
]}

Bergendorff, Claes ^{[9
]}

Birks, H. John B. ^{[10
,11
,12
]}

Brathen, Kari Anne ^{[13
]}

Brunet, Jorg ^{[14
]}

Bruun, Hans Henrik ^{[15
]}

Dahlberg, Carl Johan ^{[16
]}

Decocq, Guillaume ^{[2
]}

Diekmann, Martin ^{[17
]}

Dynesius, Mats ^{[18
]}

Ejrnaes, Rasmus ^{[19
]}

Grytnes, John-Arvid ^{[10
]}

Hylander, Kristoffer ^{[16
]}

Klanderud, Kari ^{[10
,20
]}

Luoto, Miska ^{[21
]}

Milbau, Ann ^{[22
]}

Moora, Mari ^{[23
]}

Nygaard, Bettina ^{[19
]}

Odland, Arvid ^{[24
]}

Ravolainen, Virve Tuulia ^{[13
]}

Reinhardt, Stefanie ^{[24
]}

Sandvik, Sylvi Marlen ^{[25
]}

Schei, Fride Hoistad ^{[26
]}

Speed, James David Mervyn ^{[8
]}

Tveraabak, Liv Unn ^{[27
]}

Vandvik, Vigdis ^{[10
]}

Velle, Liv Guri ^{[28
]}

Virtanen, Risto ^{[29
]}

Zobel, Martin ^{[23
]}

Svenning, Jens-Christian ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, Ecoinformat & Biodivers Grp, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

[2] Jules Verne Univ Picardie, Plant Biodivers Lab, Ecol & Dynam Syst Anthropises EA 4698, FR-80037 Amiens, France

[3] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol NTNU, Dept Biol, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[4] Norwegian Inst Nat Res, NO-7485 Trondheim, Norway

[5] Tromso Univ Museum, NO-9000 Tromso, Norway

[6] Univ Portsmouth, Sch Biol Sci, Portsmouth PO1 2DY, Hants, England

[7] Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA

[8] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Museum Nat Hist & Archaeol, NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[9] Malmo Museer, SE-20124 Malmo, Sweden

[10] Univ Bergen, Dept Biol, Ecol & Environm Change Res Grp, NO-5020 Bergen, Norway

[11] UCL, Environm Change Res Ctr, London WC1E 6BT, England

[12] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England

[13] Univ Tromso, Dept Arctic & Marine Biol, NO-9037 Tromso, Norway

[14] Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Southern Swedish Forest Res Ctr, SE-23053 Alnarp, Sweden

[15] Univ Copenhagen, Dept Biol, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark

[16] Stockholm Univ, Dept Bot, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[17] Univ Bremen, Inst Ecol FB 2, DE-28359 Bremen, Germany

[18] Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, SE-90187 Umea, Sweden

[19] Aarhus Univ, Dept Biosci, DK-8410 Ronde, Denmark

[20] Norwegian Univ Life Sci, Dept Ecol & Nat Resource Management, NO-1432 As, Norway

[21] Univ Helsinki, Dept Geosci & Geog, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

[22] Umea Univ, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, Climate Impacts Res Ctr, SE-98107 Abisko, Sweden

[23] Univ Tartu, Inst Ecol & Earth Sci, EE-51005 Tartu, Estonia

[24] Telemark Univ Coll, NO-3800 Bo, Norway

[25] Univ Agder, Fac Engn & Sci, NO-4604 Kristiansand, Norway

[26] Norwegian Forest & Landscape Inst, NO-5244 Fana, Norway

[27] Univ Tromso, Dept Educ, NO-9037 Tromso, Norway

[28] Norwegian Inst Agr & Environm Res, NO-6967 Fureneset, Hellevik, Norway

[29] Univ Oulu, Dept Biol, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland

来源：

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY | 2013年 / 19卷 / 05期

关键词：

climate change; climatic heterogeneity; community-inferred temperature; Ellenberg indicator value; plant community; spatial heterogeneity; spatial scale; temperature; topoclimate; topography; STEPPE TRANSITION; MODELS; REGRESSION; DIVERSITY; MOUNTAIN; DYNAMICS; TERRAIN; AREA;

D O I：

10.1111/gcb.12129

中图分类号：

X176 [生物多样性保护];

学科分类号：

090705 ;

摘要：

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500km2) suggest that fine-grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate-change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000-m2 units (community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1-km2 units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1-km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100-km2 units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 4672% of variation in LmT and 9296% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km2 units peaked at 6065 degrees N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 degrees C (SD=0.84 degrees C) and 2.68 degrees C (SD=1.26 degrees C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography-related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing-season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing-season CiT within 100-km2 units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 degrees Ckm1) than spatial turnover in growing-season GiT (0.18 degrees Ckm1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1-km2 units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.

引用

页码：1470 / 1481

页数：12