Estimating population size and density of a low-density population of black bears in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) is home to a low-density black bear (Ursus americanus) population that exists at > 2,400 m with a very limited growing season. A previous study (1984-1991) found bear densities among the lowest reported (1.37-1.52 bears/100 km(2)). Because of concerns of viability of this small population, we assessed population size and density of black bears from 2003 to 2006 to determine the current status of RMNP's bear population. We used three approaches to estimate population size and density: (1) minimum number known, (2) occupancy modeling, and (3) catch per unit effort (CPUE). We used information from capture and remote-triggered cameras, as well as visitor information, to derive a minimum known population estimate of 20-24 individuals and a median density estimate of 1.35 bears/100 km(2). Bear occupancy was estimated at 0.46 (SE = 0.11), with occupancy positively influenced by lodgepole pine stands, non-vegetated areas, and patch density but negatively influenced by mixed conifer stands. We combined the occupancy estimate with mean home-range size and overlap for bears in RMNP to derive a density estimate of 1.44 bears/100 km(2). We also related CPUE to density estimates for eight low-density black bear populations to estimate density in RMNP; this estimate (1.03 bears/100 km(2)) was comparable to the occupancy estimate and suggests that this approach may be useful for future population monitoring. The use of corroborative techniques for assessing population size of a low-density black bear population was effective and should be considered for similar low-density wildlife populations.