Climate change projections and stratosphere-troposphere interaction

被引：134

作者：

Scaife, Adam A. ^{[1
]}

Spangehl, Thomas ^{[2
]}

Fereday, David R. ^{[1
]}

Cubasch, Ulrich ^{[2
]}

Langematz, Ulrike ^{[2
]}

Akiyoshi, Hideharu ^{[3
]}

Bekki, Slimane ^{[4
]}

Braesicke, Peter ^{[5
]}

Butchart, Neal ^{[1
]}

Chipperfield, Martyn P. ^{[6
]}

Gettelman, Andrew ^{[7
]}

Hardiman, Steven C. ^{[1
]}

Michou, Martine ^{[8
]}

Rozanov, Eugene ^{[9
,10
]}

Shepherd, Theodore G. ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

[2] Free Univ Berlin, Berlin, Germany

[3] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[4] CNRS INSU, UPMC, UVSQ, LATMOS IPSL, Paris, France

[5] Univ Cambridge, Cambridge, England

[6] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[7] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[8] CNRS, GAME CNRM, Toulouse, France

[9] ETHZ, Davos, Switzerland

[10] PMOD WRC, Davos, Switzerland

[11] Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2012年 / 38卷 / 9-10期

关键词：

Climate change; Europe; Stratosphere; Storm track; GRAVITY-WAVE PARAMETERIZATION; ENVIRONMENTAL-MODEL HADGEM1; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE; PHYSICAL-PROPERTIES; CYCLONE ACTIVITY; CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERE; ENSEMBLE; SIMULATIONS; VARIABILITY;

D O I：

10.1007/s00382-011-1080-7

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projections.

引用

页码：2089 / 2097

页数：9

共 42 条

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