Reduced lung cancer incidence attributable to decreased tobacco use in urban Shanghai

Lung cancer has been the most common type of cancer in the world for several decades, and by 2008, there were approximately 1.61 million new cases, representing 12.7 % of all new cancers. It has been well known for many years that smoking causes lung cancer. Tobacco control measures have been regarded as the principal causes of the declines in smoking-related mortality, including mortality from lung cancer. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze the long-term trends in lung cancer incidence rates from 1983 to 2008 in urban Shanghai. In addition, this study estimates how many fewer cases of lung cancer have occurred in urban Shanghai because of tobacco control activities. The lung cancer incidence rate among males decreased slightly by 0.6 % [95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) -0.1 to 1.3 %] from 1983 to 1999 and then declined rapidly at a rate of 3.8 % (95 % CI 2.1-5.4 %). Among females, the cancer incidence rate decreased by 0.1 % (95 % CI -0.2 to 0.5 %) from 1983 to 2008. Overall, we estimated that approximately 2,711 cases of lung cancer were averted among urban men in Shanghai between 2000 and 2008 because of the reduction in tobacco smoking. The reduction in tobacco smoking is a major factor in the decrease in the incidence rate of lung cancer. Sustained progress in tobacco control is essential.