Probabilistic methodology for Technical and Non-Technical Losses estimation in distribution system

This work contemplates the development and application of a probabilistic methodology for the Technical and Non-Technical Losses estimation in a feeder in the presence of load variations of a large distribution system. Due to such variations in load, the feeder losses are also characterized as random variables which are related to statistical moments, such as mean and variance. Comparing the Measured Energy consumption in the feeder with the Billed Energy by the utility plus the Technical Losses, the energy balance is made and the Non-Technical Losses are estimated. Along a feeder, meters are installed allowing its division into sub-networks, therefore, the Non-Technical Losses of each circuit are estimated with greater precision. This methodology is useful in countries that Smart Grids are far from reality and the resources are scarce. A real system was used as a case study for the Probabilistic Energy Balance developed. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.