Probabilistic evaluation of service-life of RC structures subjected to carbonation

Among the degradation mechanisms affecting reinforced concrete (RC) structures, carbonation is one of the main causes of deterioration of the steel reinforcement. Due to the uncertainties in the variables related to the deterioration process, a probabilistic treatment of these uncertainties must be adopted in the service-life prediction of RC structures. While a framework for such probabilistic assessment can be easily envisioned at present, the main difficulties in the implementation of such format arise from the selection of the models to be used in the calculation of the depth of carbonation and the statistical description of the attendant variables. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is used for the probabilistic service-life prediction of RC structures subjected to carbonation, for the limit state of depassivation. Service-life predictions are obtained using three different models for the prediction of the carbonation depth. Different scenarios are assumed for the materials, construction practices and environmental exposure.