Towards a comprehensive assessment of model structural adequacy

被引:339
作者
Gupta, Hoshin V. [1 ]
Clark, Martyn P. [2 ]
Vrugt, Jasper A. [3 ,4 ]
Abramowitz, Gab [5 ]
Ye, Ming [6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[3] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA
[4] Univ Amsterdam, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Dynam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[5] Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
[6] Florida State Univ, Dept Comp Sci, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
UNSATURATED FRACTURED TUFF; LAND-SURFACE MODEL; 3-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL INVERSION; CROSS-HOLE TESTS; STOCHASTIC-ANALYSIS; DATA ASSIMILATION; SOLUTE-TRANSPORT; HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; HETEROGENEOUS SOILS; LARGE-SCALE;
D O I
10.1029/2011WR011044
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The past decade has seen significant progress in characterizing uncertainty in environmental systems models, through statistical treatment of incomplete knowledge regarding parameters, model structure, and observational data. Attention has now turned to the issue of model structural adequacy (MSA, a term we prefer over model structure "error"). In reviewing philosophical perspectives from the groundwater, unsaturated zone, terrestrial hydrometeorology, and surface water communities about how to model the terrestrial hydrosphere, we identify several areas where different subcommunities can learn from each other. In this paper, we (a) propose a consistent and systematic "unifying conceptual framework" consisting of five formal steps for comprehensive assessment of MSA; (b) discuss the need for a pluralistic definition of adequacy; (c) investigate how MSA has been addressed in the literature; and (d) identify four important issues that require detailed attention-structured model evaluation, diagnosis of epistemic cause, attention to appropriate model complexity, and a multihypothesis approach to inference. We believe that there exists tremendous scope to collectively improve the scientific fidelity of our models and that the proposed framework can help to overcome barriers to communication. By doing so, we can make better progress toward addressing the question "How can we use data to detect, characterize, and resolve model structural inadequacies?"
引用
收藏
页数:16
相关论文
共 188 条
[1]   Toward a generalization of the TOPMODEL concepts: Topographic indices of hydrological similarity [J].
Ambroise, B ;
Beven, K ;
Freer, J .
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 1996, 32 (07) :2135-2145
[2]  
Anderson M.P., 2002, APPL GROUNDWATER MOD
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2006, Elements of Information Theory
[4]  
[Anonymous], TM6E3 US GEOL SURV
[5]  
[Anonymous], SUBSURFACE FLOW TRAN
[6]  
[Anonymous], 2010, GEOPHYS RES LETT, DOI DOI 10.1029/2009GL042194
[7]  
[Anonymous], WATER RESOUR RES
[8]  
[Anonymous], J STOCHCASTIC HYDROL
[9]  
[Anonymous], COMPUTATIONAL METHOD
[10]  
[Anonymous], THEORY MODELLING