A method for predicting the occurrence of paralytic shellfish poisoning along the coast of Hokkaido in the Okhotsk Sea in summer

To design a method for predicting outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in scallop fishing grounds, the relationship between the distribution of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamarense and the dynamics of the Soya Warm Current (SWC) was examined in the Okhotsk Sea off Hokkaido. Surveys were conducted from May to June to clarify the transportation mechanism of A. tamarense from the oceanic area to the coastal area. The sea-level difference (SLD) between Wakkanai and Abashiri was monitored as an index of the strength of the SWC southeastward flow in an alongshore belt to examine the possible occurrence of A. tamarense in the coastal area during temporal weakening of the SWC. A bottom-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) was used for direct observations of the SWC. The results indicated that PSP occurred when low-salinity water contaminated with A. tamarense extended to the coast during temporal weakening of the SWC due to a decrease of the SLD. Our results strongly indicate that predictions can be realized by monitoring the decrease of SLD as an index of temporal weakening of the SWC after surveys of the distribution of A. tamarense in the oceanic area before the period of PSP occurrence.