Impact of overestimated ENSO variability in the relationship between ENSO and East Asian summer rainfall

被引:17
作者
Fu, Yuanhai [1 ,2 ]
Lu, Riyu [3 ]
Wang, Huijun [1 ,2 ]
Yang, Xiuqun [4 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Acad Sci, Climate Change Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
[3] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Natl Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
[4] Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
关键词
ENSO; East Asian summer rainfall; CGCM; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; CMIP3 COUPLED MODELS; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; INDIAN-OCEAN; EL-NINO; MONSOON; CLIMATE; TELECONNECTION; SIMULATIONS; INSTABILITY;
D O I
10.1002/jgrd.50482
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the preceding winter are an important predictor used to forecast the subsequent East Asian summer rainfall (EASR). This study investigates the relationship between the preceding winter ENSO and the EASR in coupled general circulation models, by analyzing the simulated results of 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 models. It is found that more than half of these models can approximately reproduce the ENSO's delayed impact on the EASR, and five models can capture the significant ENSO-EASR relationship. All of these five models overestimate the intensity of the ENSO variability, and they are almost the models that most seriously overestimate the ENSO variability, strongly suggesting that overestimated ENSO variability can help coupled models reproduce the relationship between the ENSO and EASR. Further analyses indicate that all of the five best models also overestimate the intensity of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) variability, and they simulate the strongest intensity of Indian Ocean SST variability among the 18 models.
引用
收藏
页码:6200 / 6211
页数:12
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