A dynamic analysis of strategies for increasing energy efficiency of refrigerators in Colombia

A dynamic model for refrigerators' stock and replacement is proposed to analyze the evolution of refrigerators' stock efficiency in Colombia. The model simulates changes on energy consumption of refrigerators' stock as inefficient refrigerators are replaced at their end of life, and also voluntarily, as a result of energy efficiency strategies. Replacement rates are estimated using a diffusion model, while a discrete choice model that considers upfront and use costs is used to represent impact of energy efficiency on consumers' decisions. The proposed model is useful for ex-ante policy analysis and design. Results from the base case scenario indicate that the current energy efficiency policy achieves a 75% penetration of high-efficiency refrigerators by 2032. The replacement of inefficient refrigerators can be accelerated by increasing access to credit to consumers; a 25% increase in households with access to credit increases voluntary replacements by 16%. Other financial incentives, such as price discounts and lower financial rates, also increase voluntary replacements, although at lower rates. To maximize the energy efficiency gains of refrigerators' substitution, higher energy standards and removal and scrapping of old refrigerators are needed.