Immunity after COVID-19: Protection or sensitization?

被引：11
作者：
Danchin, Antoine [1 ]
Turinici, Gabriel [2 ]
机构：
[1] Inst Cochin, Kodikos Labs, F-75014 Paris, France
[2] Univ Paris Dauphine PSL, CEREMADE, F-75016 Paris, France
来源：
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES | 2021年 / 331卷
关键词：
COVID-19; Antibody-dependent enhancement; SEIR model; Vaccine; Dengue fever; Asymptomatic; ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; KAWASAKI-LIKE DISEASE; DENGUE; EPIDEMIC; RISK; SARS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108499
中图分类号：
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
Motivated by historical and present clinical observations, we discuss the possible unfavorable evolution of the immunity (similar to documented antibody-dependent enhancement scenarios) after a first infection with COVID-19. More precisely we ask the question of how the epidemic outcomes are affected if the initial infection does not provide immunity but rather sensitization to future challenges. We first provide background comparison with the 2003 SARS epidemic. Then we use a compartmental epidemic model structured by immunity level that we fit to available data; using several scenarios of the fragilization dynamics, we derive quantitative insights into the additional expected numbers of severe cases and deaths.
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