The sustainability of logging in Indonesia's tropical forests: A dynamic input-output analysis

The extraordinarily high ecological values of Indonesia's tropical forests are being threatened by excessive and careless logging. This paper reports the results of a dynamic input-output model used to make projections of the growth of demand for logs through to the year 2020 and of the likely impact of this growth on forest degradation measured by rates of soil erosion and deforestation. Policy variables built into the model scenarios include the rate of plantation establishment and the 'technologies' used to log natural forests. The results show that the critical variables determining the future of Indonesia's forests will be the overall rate of growth of the economy and the rate of plantation establishment. However, even with a marked shift to plantations and adoption of much more sustainable practices for logging natural forests (both of which are in practice unlikely), degradation of Indonesia's tropical forests will be severe.