BAYESIAN MODEL COMPARISON AND MODEL AVERAGING FOR SMALL-AREA ESTIMATION

This paper considers small-area estimation with lung cancer mortality data, and discusses the choice Of Upper-level model for the variation over areas. Inference about the random effects for the areas may depend strongly oil the choice of this model, but this choice is not a straightforward matter. We give a general methodology for both evaluating the data evidence for different models and averaging over plausible models to give robust area effect distributions. We reanalyze the data of Tsutakawa [Biometrics 41 (1985) 69-79] on lung cancer mortality rates in Missouri cities, and show the differences in conclusions about the city rates from this methodology.