Toward a Comprehensive Developmental Model of Prescription Opioid Use Disorder

Objective: To develop a comprehensive etiologic model of DSM-5 prescription opioid use disorder (POUD) based on Kendler and colleagues' development model for major depressive disorder. Methods: Data were drawn from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (2012-2013). Risk factors were divided into 4 developmental tiers (childhood/early adolescence, late adolescence, adulthood, past year). Hierarchical logistic regression models were used to examine the independent contribution of each risk factor. Separate models were built to predict 12-month nonmedical use of prescription opioids and risk of POUD among those with 12-month nonmedical use. Results: After adjustment for other risk factors, the odds of past 12-month nonmedical use of prescription opioids were increased by history of trauma, social deviance, and use of drugs other than opioids in adulthood and by past-year pain, alcohol use disorder (AUD), tobacco use disorder, any Axis I disorder other than SUD, and number of stressful events. History of POUD in adulthood and pain, AUD, tobacco use disorder, and any Axis I disorder other than substance use disorders (SUD) in the past year increased the odds of 12-month POUD. History of SUD other than POUD in adulthood was associated with lower odds of POUD. For both outcomes, the effect of earlier development tiers was mediated by more proximal ones. Conclusions: A modification of Kendler and colleagues' model for major depressive disorder provides a useful foundation for a comprehensive developmental model of nonmedical opioid use and opioid use disorder.